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Hainan Island or Hainan Military Base?
Written by Robert Vance on May 2, 2008 – 4:46 amOops! Someone in the Chinese government forgot to turn some space lasers on. The United Kingdom’s Telegraph Newspaper is reporting this week that the speculation about the Chinese Island of Hainan being more than just a warm sunny tourist destination is true. According to the newspaper, new satellite photos show a large harbour and a “network of underground tunnels at the Sanya base on the southern tip of Hainan island.” There is widespread speculation that the base could be housing nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers.
So there goes my vacation to Hainan that I had planned earlier in the year. I think I’ll go somewhere in China where I know there aren’t nuclear vessels being stored right under my nose. Of course, all of that is rumor and speculation. But seriously, we do know that China has been substantially ‘bulking’ up their military power within the last 5-10 years. Yes, I’m critical of the buildup. Not because they don’t have a right to store up weapons and strengthen their military. Not because they’re using money that could be used to help the millions of people in China who are still far below the poverty level. I’m critical because I’m suspicious. China is supposed to be a peaceful country. If you ask my students, they’ll tell you that China has never fought a war of agression; only for defense. Of course, that assertion is very debatable but if China is supposedly so pacifist in nature, why are they putting so many resources into the military? Why the secret bases? What are they afraid of? Is there going to be a war with Taiwan? Will the Chinese government seek to challenge U.S. dominance in the region? This news is unsettling because there are too many unknowns.
I suppose that George W. Bush could simply pick up the phone and ask Hu JinTao. But where would that get anyone? The Chinese government would simply respond to his suspicions with suspicions of its own. Why do you want to know about the secret military base? Why are you spying? Do you not trust China? Of course, America and many other countries do not trust China. China may be be a socialist country now but the Communists are still in control. The point is, no one is going to make that phonecall. No one wants to jeopardize the flow of money that results as a result from trade with China.
So, the guessing game will continue. Military analysts in the West will make grave predictions about China’s military capability and intentions while Western government officials will try to avoid the issue altogether. There are few politicans in the West who are voicing concern over China’s military buildup. And those few voices are being drowned out by the sound of money flowing back and forth between China and the West. So be it. Someday we will find out for what purpose the Hainan Sanya base is destined as well as the true intentions behind the military buildup. Will it be too late by then?
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I doubt it’s for an attack on Taiwan. Hainan island is too far away from Taiwan to act as a military base and forms part of the Guangzhou military region, Taiwan is dealt with by the Nanjing military region. More likely the base is to act as a protected anchorage for the new fleet China is building to patrol the sea lanes between Southern China and the middle east. Just like everyone else, they are worried about being cut off from energy supplies. This doesn’t mean there isn’t a build-up directed at Taiwan, but the bases from which an attack on Taiwan might be launched are already pretty well established. The missile build-up has already reached more than 1,400, including both ballistic and land-attack cruise missiles.
People bashing China’s military build-up need to first answer the question exactly what level of military development is appropriate for China? Whether you are peace loving or not, an army armed with rocks and sticks is clearly not appropriate.
And the whole “money could be spent on the poor” argument fail to take into account that investing in military provides peace and stability. Peace and stability is in fact not “free” and it is naive to strip yourself naked and expect the “international system” or United States to safeguard China’s interest. Certainly nobody was looking out for China’s interest when Japanes invaded, why should China trust the system now?
What’s wrong with having secret bases? The fundamental nature of military affair is deception. I don’t see any problem with military keeping secrets to themselves.
Considering the land mass of China and the long coast line, the level of spending currently is in fact not enough to safeguard the security of the nation. Considering the population too, I quite frankly see nothing wrong with China spending 5 times the amount of budget as United States, today that budget is less than 1/5.
Don’t forget the on-going territorial dispute with Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia. Hainan is one of the best locations for naval presence for China, especially dealing with Philippines and Vietnam.
Don’t forget the lesson Vietnam learned from Chin in the 1980’s.
Hainan, being the southern most Chinese territory, at least for now, is also prime location for the Chinese space program. Space ships get bonus speed due to the closeness to the equator. This bonus is also great for other kinds of rockets too. And therefore a great place for space port and other rocket related installations.
@Bill - There are also other factors which go into choosing launch sites - like keeping them a long way away from population centres, but that might actually be a good idea as to its purpose.
@Falen - One of the problems that China has is that for it to be absolutely sure of security, it needs to have an army, navy and airforce strong enough to beat all of its neighbours - however any army strong enough to defend a country against all of a country’s neighbours will also be strong enough to threaten them. These countries will then form alliances in an effort to counter the perceived threat and you then end up with an arms race. This is the dilema which countries like Germany have faced throughout their history. The only real solution is collective security organisations like the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation and NATO - but these blocks are also likely to conflict with each other.